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UTILITY PLAN: SECTION 1: 

STUDY AREA and POPULATION DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Description of Study Area

 

The area studied is primarily undeveloped with little or no water and wastewater service to the majority of the tracts. Multiple tracts have proposed future improvements ranging from single family developments to commercial developments.  Ronald Reagan Boulevard and Parmer Lane bisect the study area from north to south. 

 

Population and Demand Projections

 

For the analysis, the population projections and water demand projections in the KFA master plans were modified to account for the current economic conditions to determine the water demand of the study area through the year 2029.  Demand information from a water model received from KFA was then used to apportion the revised demands to the proposed pipe network at 5-, 10- and 20-year time horizons.  Wastewater loadings were determined using a similar approach.  Each scenario was an adjustment and refinement of the KFA master plan in order to focus the development to this specific corridor. 

 

The KFA projections were broken into 5-year periods and then analyzed to establish an average annual growth rate, G, for each period.  These growth rates were then adjusted taking into account factors affecting growth, including the current economic downturn.  Three (3) scenarios were determined and presented: low, medium, and high growth. Per conversations with the City, the medium scenario was ultimately chosen.  The table below summarizes the medium growth scenario.

 

 

Medium Growth Scenario

 

Period

Initial Population
P
o

Projected Population
P
f

No. Years in
Growth Period
n

Average Annual
Growth Rate
G

% of Build Out
Population

 

2009-2014

3,240

13,058

5

32.15%

9.08%

 

2014-2019

13,058

29,517

5

17.72%

20.53%

 

2019-2024

29,517

41,401

5

7.00%

28.80%

 

2024-2027

41,401

47,055

3

4.36%

32.73%

 

 

0.5

Adjustment Factor to G for 2009 to mid 2010 Reduction Period

1.5

Reduction Period (years)

1

Adjustment Factor to K Friese G for remainder

-

Assume Economic Downturn impacts growth for 1.5 years, reduce G by 50% from 2009 thru mid 2010

-

Resume K Friese Growth Rates, G for remainder of Projection

 

The average annual growth factors were applied to the water and wastewater connection projections in the KFA master plans to project future water and wastewater Living Unit Equivalents (LUEs).  Future water demand and the wastewater loadings were then projected using 2.8 people per LUEs.

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